Easiest Way to Win a Virtual Trading Game
TO WIN: Be Aggressive
Winning virtual trading games, like HowTheMarketWorks.com, where the game has a short duration and there are no trading criteria (the game does not specify the type of stocks eligible to be traded), requires entirely different tactics than you would use with your own money. They require you to be VERY AGGRESSIVE. You will need to take risks and invest in stocks that you SHOULD avoid in your own portfolios because of the high risk factor.
TO WIN: Follow The Market
The most important step is to identify the direction of the market. This step is only necessary if you have only one account to trade. If you have two or more, then you can cover your bets by going LONG in one account and SHORT in the other. But if you only have one account, you must make sure you are on the right side of the market.
For a novice trader, the easiest way to determine the market’s direction is to look at one of the Market Indicators. They are all relatively difficult to understand for a novice but that is ok. You don’t need to understand them to use them. All you need is to find a site that will interpret the market direction. For example, if you look at the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index chart and look to see if the chart is showing green (BULL MARKET).
If the market indicators confuse you, you can look at a chart of a market index. All of the most popular are listed at http://stockcharts.com/. The most popular index is the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. Look at the direction of the chart (up or down) and determine if you are a BULL or a BEAR.
Once you decide the direction of the market, you will need to identify which stocks have the most potential to move in that direction the fastest – as you are under time pressure from the game. The rest of the article will help you identify these stocks.
Top Stock Picks To Beat The Market
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TO WIN: Use Leveraged ETFs as they Provide Fast Returns
Leveraged ETFs are known as a “cheat” by regular stock game players as these ETFs typically provide far faster returns. ETFs are Exchange Traded Funds that act like Mutual Funds but trade like stocks. Leveraged ETFs use financial derivatives (a sophisticated means of trading) and debt (like bonds) to amplify the returns of an a variety of indexes. Once again, it is not important to understand Leveraged ETFs, but they will provide far faster returns than regular stocks, bonds, ETFs or Mutual Funds. Since you have already chosen your best guess at the direction of the market, choosing a Bull ETF (market going up) or Bear ETF (market going down) will be easy. Leveraged ETFs come in several multiples of an index including 2X and 3X ETFs. A 2X will try to double the return on its specified index and a 3X will try to triple its index. Of course, you will want to use 3X ETFs. The highest rated 3X ETFs are:
3X Bull ETFs
Direxion Financial Bull 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (FAS)
Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (TNA)
Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (SPXL)
3X Bear ETFs
Direxion Financial Bear 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (FAZ)
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (TZA)
Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X – Triple-Leveraged ETF (SPXS)
NOTE TO INSTRUCTORS
We would highly recommend that you specify criteria to your stock game so that Leveraged ETFs are not used. It is far more instructional to specify that the students only use “stocks” in their portfolios and that the stocks must have a value over $10 to avoid the problem with Penny Stock trading. Yes, a student can achieve far more return in the risky world of leveraged ETFs but it will teach them little about real world stock market trading.
Market Indicators: Technical indicators that are used by traders to predict the direction of the major financial indexes. The most known are the Advance/Decline Index, Absolute Breadth Index, Arms Index and McClellan Oscillator.
Leveraged ETFs: An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that utilizes financial products and monies due to enlarge the returns of an underlying index. Leveraged ETFs are accessible for almost all indexes, like the Nasdaq-100 as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Market Index: By aggregating the value of a related group of stocks or other investment vehicles together and expressing their total values against a base value from a specific date. Market indexes help to represent an entire stock market and thus give investors a way to monitor the market’s changes over time.Winning virtual trading games, like HowTheMarketWorks.com requires entirely different tactics than you would use with your own money. They require you to be VERY AGGRESSIVE!!! These are game stocks.
How To Win The Virginia Stock Market Game
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Back in 2006 I wrote the article “How Your Children Can Win the Stock Market Game” recommending:
To win a short-term investment contest you have to invest like a downhill skier. Bet everything on your one trip to the bottom in hopes of being elevated to the top. But, the strategy to win such a competition is almost exactly the opposite of a good investment philosophy in real life. In a mock investment competition you shouldn’t diversify. Diversifying your investment smoothes returns guaranteeing a return toward the middle of the pack. Instead, you want to put all your capital in one risky investment and hope for the best.
“How Your Children Can Win the Stock Market Game” by David John Marotta
In this article, I explore the mechanics of how you might build such a portfolio within the common constraints of The Virginia Stock Market Game. But first, let’s do a thought experiment and explore what type of portfolio is likely to win this competition.
What Strategy Might Win?
In Virginia, awards are given to the top three teams.
If there were 100 participants in your state and grade category, your random chance of being in the top three if everyone chooses a similar strategy would be just 3%. But the more you diversity your portfolio, the less likely your chance of winning. Imagine that you diversify your strategy to include a small piece of everyone else’s strategy. If you did that you would only have an average return, not an extraordinary one. If you diversify, about 50 other participants would likely beat your return and 50 lose to your return.
Even fourth place won’t be in the winner’s circle. You have to distinguish your return in order to score in the top three. Any other outcome, no matter how well you did, won’t be considered a winner. So with such a small chance of winning, your goal should be to have fun, learn something, and distinguish your team in whatever way you choose. Let’s do another thought experiment.
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Imagine that all of the participants invested in the S&P 500 and you choose to invest in something very different. Now your odds of winning are raised to 50%. Either your choice will do better than the S&P 500 and you will win or your choice will do worse than the S&P 500 and you will not win. Most participants won’t win, and the goal of the game is to have fun. The money isn’t real. In fact, if your team loses everything and goes bankrupt it could be more exciting than an above average return. At least they will be talking about you!
Now imagine that every team chooses an investment strategy of rags or riches. One team chooses an investment strategy that will probably win or lose 10%. Another team chooses a strategy that will either win or lose 15%. And a third chooses a strategy that will either win or lose 20%. If you could only find a strategy that will probably win or lose 25% you would again have a 50% chance of winning the overall competition. Unlike investing with real money, in the stock market game the more volatile your portfolio the more likely your chances of winning.
Unlike actual investing, the stock market game favors participants who trade the cash cow that provides them with their daily milk for a handful of beans hoping that they are magical.
The Equity Rule
Putting all of our money in a single volatile stock is terrible investment advice but an ideal game strategy. But the Equity Rule of the competition limits the total amount of equity that can be invested in a single security at the time of trade. The purpose of this rule is to teach participants to diversify their portfolios. The Equity Rule states, “A Maximum Percent Equity rule of 20% means that a team cannot invest more than 20% of their current equity times 1.5 (because they can buy on margin) in a single company.”
Let’s understand this rule.
Teams start with $100,000. But teams are allowed to borrow up to 50% of their portfolio’s value. This is called “going on margin.” The amount you borrow is subject to paying a 7% annual interest. I will discuss below if this is a good idea or not, but for now, this means that you cannot invest more than 20% of the $150,000 buying power you have in any one equity. This limit is only calculated when you buy a stock. Once purchased. if the total price of the shares increases above the maximum percent equity you can still keep your shares however you will not be able to purchase any more shares of that stock.
This rule means that initially, we cannot purchase more than $30,000 of any individual stock. Another way of thinking about the rule is, assuming that we are not using margin, the minimum number of stocks we can invest in would be four. And we could invest them in any pattern. We could put $25,000 in each of the four, or we could invest $30,000 in three and $10,000 in the fourth.
Four stocks does not diversify a portfolio. But of course in this twisted game, we oddly want to build as a concentrated position as allowed by the rules.
If you invest in four stocks from different sectors of the economy, they are likely to have very different returns. These different returns will, on average, dampen portfolio volatility. Dampening portfolio volatility will result in a portfolio more likely to go up or down by 10% rather than our target 25%. Therefore, we want to have as volatile a portfolio as possible.
Since we would like to put all of our equity in a single stock, the next best thing is to invest in four different companies which are all in the same sector of the economy. Companies which move in sync with one another are more likely to all move up or all move down together, boosting the variance of our portfolio’s return and increasing the chance that we win the competition.
You could, for example, pick an industry such as technology. If you were able to, you might invest everything in Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT).
For the six months ending 7/21/2019, VGT appreciated 25.20%.
Meanwhile during that same time, the top five holdings of VGT appreciated:
- 29.28% Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
- 32.15% Apple Inc (APPL)
- 29.84% Visa Inc Class A (V)
- 38.17% Mastercard Inc A (MA)
- 28.09% Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)
Here is chart of what returns might have looked like if a six month competition closed on 7/19/2019. VGT is the bold black line.
VGT is currently comprised of 328 different holdings. As you blend the returns of those holdings together, they approach the average return of the fund. But average doesn’t win Stock Market Games.
So if you picked four of the top five companies within VGT you might increase the chance of having a wildly above or below average return.
In fact as you look at the companies within VGT, you may decide to concentrate even further. You could choose to invest in four credit companies like Visa and Mastercard, adding American Express (AXP), Discover (DFS) or Capital One (COF).
Perhaps you want to avoid the large cap stocks that everyone has heard about and invest in random smaller companies. Smaller companies on average appreciate more than large companies. They are also more volatile and therefore the type of investment you are looking for. You could look at the five smallest companies held in VGT.
During the past six months, the bottom five holdings of VGT appreciated:
- -40.87% Applied Optoelectronics Inc.(AAOI)
- -10.60% Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd.(AOY.SG)
- 21.47% International Money Express Inc. (IMXI)
- -30.51% NeoPhotonics Corp.(NPTN)
- -33.89% Exela Technologies Inc. (XELA)
Here is chart of what returns might have looked like if a six month competition closed on 7/19/2019. once again, VGT is the bold black line.
This is a wonderfully abysmal return! Your team would have a great deal of fun losing most of its pretend money and have a topic of conversation with all your friends and family. If you are mentally prepared for this possible outcome, doing very poorly can be as much fun as doing well.
The Virginia Stock Market Game Guide says that a 1% broker’s fee is charged for all transactions. Assuming that we invest our entire $100,000, we start down 1% with our portfolio worth just $99,000.
Every trade will cost us 1% of the money we trade. If we invest all our money, and then sell everything and buy something else, we will have lost 3% of our portfolio on trading costs. This potential drag on the portfolio is probably not worth extensive trading, especially given the short time horizon of the competition itself. I would suggest making initial purchases and then not trading again during the competition.
Use Of Margin
Teams are allowed to borrow funds up to 50% of your portfolio value at a cost of 7% per year, posted weekly. If your portfolio value drops such that you are on margin for more than 50% of the portfolio value you will experience a margin call requiring you to sell equities until your margin value is less than 50% of your portfolio value.
Normally margin is not a good idea. And I would suggest younger team’s not use their margin capability.
But in a short-term trading game with no consequences, you may decide to take a large chance and risk more than you could normally afford investing in the markets. If you experience a margin call and are forced to sell, you will experience another 1% trading cost. It may be prudent to allow for a significant market drop and only use a portion of your available margin for investing, perhaps four investments of $30,000 each. Just be prepared for the possibility of a spectacular portfolio implosion.
Normal shares are purchased for investment and later sold for a profit or loss. A short sale does this in reverse. Stock shares can be borrowed and sold without owning any shares. Then later you must purchase shares in order to close the short and return shares from having borrowed them. This is normally only done for a company whose stock price you believe will drop. If you short sell 50 shares at a price of $100 per share you will receive $5,000 but have a short position worth -$5,000 of -50 shares. If the price later drops from $100 to $50 per share, you can purchase 50 shares for just $2,500 to close the short position. You keep the extra $2,500 ($5,000 sell minus $2,500 buy).
Since on average stocks go up in value this can be a risky strategy. We would not recommend younger participants engage in short selling.
Money left uninvested earns interest at an annual rate of 0.75%. Since this is such a small interest rate it would probably be better to keep your portfolio fully invested.
The number of strategy ideas is as infinite as the publicly traded companies that comprise the market. If you have an interesting strategy, you can make the news even if you don’t win the competition. And if you win the competition you can help ensure that you make the news. Additionally you can submit an essay about your strategy to writing contests.
Here are a few ideas to help spark your own creativity.
Beer: Dartmouth Professor of Finance Ken French collects some interesting data for the returns of 49 different Industry Portfolios. One of the best performing industries for the past century appears to be the beer industry. Invest everything in a few beer companies. This strategy could also be utilized to pick a different very specific industry.
I, Pencil: Leonard Read wrote the essay “I, Pencil” in 1958. He went on to found the Foundation for Economic Education. His essay chronicles all of the invisible hand economics required to build a single pencil. Find some simple object like a pencil and invest in the four or five companies that make such a product possible.
Chile: Foreign Investments that trade on the New York Stock Exchange are done so through an American Depository Receipt (ADR). The value of foreign companies go up or down like other stocks, but they also go up or down as the foreign currency appreciates or depreciates against the US dollar. All the companies from the same country will go up or down in sync with the exchange rate to the US Dollar. Pick a country like Chile and four or five companies from a list of the most common Chilean ADRs trading on US stock exchanges. This gives you both the volatility of individual stocks and the volatility of currency exchanges, a recipe for glory regardless of if the outcome is positive or negative.
Single Stat: Learn about various financial ratios and pick one of them. Find a stock screener and invest in companies that have the most extreme scores for your financial statistic.
Going Bankrupt: Distressed securities are the stock of companies that are near to or currently going through bankruptcy. If they manage not to go bankrupt the appreciation can be tremendous. The Motley Fool keeps a list of distressed companies with a total debt-to-equity ratio of greater than 80%, and a current ratio less than 1.0 or a short interest greater than 10%. Pick four companies you think won’t go bankrupt and hope for the best. You could also short sell some of these.
Haters Gonna Hate: Many news organizations keep lists of the most hated companies in America. Find such a list and pick four companies on the list that you think don’t deserve the hate they receive. Or pick four companies you do think deserve the hate they receive. You could also short sell some of these.
I Like To Buy: Form a team of four people and let each person pick the company they like to buy from the most. Write an essay on why the world is a better place because of these four companies.
The Letter Q: Pick a letter of the alphabet. Select all stocks that contain this letter in their ticker symbol.
Blind Monkeys Throwing Darts: It has been said that blind monkeys throwing darts can beat the return of the S&P 500. Buy a Wall Street Journal and throw four darts at the stock pages to pick your portfolio’s investment strategy.
Dead Cat Bounce: Find companies whose stock prices have lost the greatest percent of their value in the past six months. Invest in those on the idea that they have already had all the bad news they can.
Hope For A Market Crash: You could short sell as many similar stocks as possible. Since most participants will have a strategy that does well if the markets go up, you may be the only one who wins big if the market goes down. The more spectacular the drop, the better you may do. Or you may lose your shirt!
Margin To The Hilt: Bet on the market appreciating significantly and go on margin as much as possible without risking a margin call. If the market goes up at a rate of more than 7% annually your extra investment should earn more than the cost of going on margin.
Any of these strategies would easily make the news if your strategy won the competition. Write an accompanying essay about the wisdom or folly of your chosen strategy and submit it to InvestWrite National Writing Competition.
Schools, teachers, or students interested in participating in the Virginia Stock Market Game can learn more on the Virginia Council on Economic Education website. If you do compete and want to share your results with us, fill out our Contact form and let us know about your strategy. We may even write an article about you.The strategy to win such a competition is almost exactly the opposite of a good investment philosophy. ]]>