NFL Parlay Picks: Week 2 (2020)
We were close. If not for a sloppy Tampa Bay Buccaneers debut from Tom Brady, we would’ve hit last week’s parlay that featured the Bucs, Bills, Jaguars, and Steelers.
After a close call last week, let’s flip the page and nail home a big win in Week 2. This week’s parlay features two sides and a total, and it pays +579.
Leg 1: San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets – Under 42.5
There’s a decent chance the Jets don’t score a single point Sunday against a 49ers defense that should come into MetLife Stadium plenty motivated.
Let’s start with the Jets, who looked inept for the entire first half against Buffalo. The Jets had 27 yards on their first five drives of the season before staging a miraculous 10-play, 75-yard drive that resulted in a field goal to close the half. Last week’s game should’ve gone under 39.5 if not for a garbage touchdown by the Jets with less than a minute to play.
Somehow, things will likely be worse on Sunday. The Jets will play without running back Le’Veon Bell, who landed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. That leaves them with grandpa Frank Gore, journeyman Josh Adams, and Kalen Ballage as the team’s backs heading into the weekend.
To make matters worse, exciting rookie receiver Denzel Mims landed on the IR Tuesday with a hamstring injury. This leaves Sam Darnold with Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, and Josh Malone as his receivers. Gross.
Oh, and the team is coached by Adam Gase.
San Francisco’s ground-and-pound style also lends to the under hitting. I question how much Kyle Shanahan really trusts Jimmy Garoppolo after he failed to rally the team against Arizona last week. Expect a steady diet of Raheem Mostert and long offensive drives against the Jets, who surrendered 31 first downs last week. It wouldn’t surprise me if San Francisco held the ball for over 40 minutes like Buffalo did last week.
The 49ers’ front seven shouldn’t have much trouble getting to Darnold. New York’s remade offensive line struggled mightily against Buffalo, surrendering three sacks and five QB hits. Darnold better have his Kevlar vest on against Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Solomon Thomas.
While I won’t go as far as laying seven with the road favorite, this game feels like it’ll go under.
Leg 2: New York Giants +5.5 at Chicago Bears
While I faded Daniel Jones and the Giants on last week’s parlay card, I’m rolling with them on the road against a Bears team that’s lucky to be 1-0.
While the Bears deserve credit for pulling out of a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit, so much had to go right just for them to have a chance:
- Matt Prater missed a 55-yard field goal.
- Matthew Stafford threw an AWFUL interception with under three minutes to play.
- D’Andre Swift dropped what would’ve been the game-winning touchdown.
I live in Chicago, so I’ve listened to Bears fans discuss how they’re back in on Mitch Trubisky. But let’s remember that he was pedestrian through the first three quarters, completing 12-of-26 passes for only 156 yards. For one quarter, Trubisky looked like a real starting quarterback, going 8-of-10 for 86 yards and three TDs in the final frame. But too often he looks like the guy we watched for three quarters Sunday.
Chicago’s defense also didn’t look great, allowing 426 total yards to a Lions offense without star receiver Kenny Golladay. They also let Adrian Peterson run for 93 yards a week after he signed with Detroit.
I obviously had low expectations for the Giants, given that I faded them as 5.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers. And while my pick was right, the Giants kept it closer than expected.
There were times where Daniel Jones looked good. I was impressed with his ability to look off his first read or evade pressure on a handful of occasions against a really talented Steelers defense. Yet the turnovers reared their ugly head again. The end-zone interception he threw to erase a beautiful 19-play drive midway through the third quarter just can’t happen.
Nevertheless, the Giants actually hung around with the Steelers longer than anticipated. And the box score proves it wasn’t too fluky. New York had one more first down and was only out-gained by 58 yards. Of course, two turnovers and a 1-for-3 performance in the red zone will cost you almost any game.
Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett should dedicate this week to improving his team’s running game. Saquon Barkley should never run for six yards on 15 carries. The good news is Barkley went up against arguably the toughest front seven in the league. Plus, the Bears just gave up 138 yards on the ground last week. I’d expect a bounce-back from Barkley, which will take the pressure off Jones.
We’ve seen Trubisky put up clunkers before. The Bears went 1-4 as home favorites last season, while the Giants went 4-2 as road underdogs. Allen Robinson’s reported discontent over his contract situation won’t help matters either. Expect the Giants to keep it close.
Leg 3: Jacksonville Jaguars +9 at Tennessee Titans
That’s right! I’m going back to the Jags in another parlay. This line opened at Tennessee -11 before quickly dropping two points. I’m confident Jacksonville can keep this divisional contest close, especially after watching the Titans on Monday night.
The Titans escaped Denver with a 16-14 victory, but the running game that catalyzed Tennessee’s AFC Championship Game run wasn’t nearly as efficient against the Broncos. Derrick Henry rushed for 116 yards on a whopping 31 carries. Tennessee’s offensive line wasn’t as dominant as it was to close out the 2019 campaign.
The Jaguars surrendered 310 rushing yards in two games against Tennessee last season. But they allowed only 88 yards on 22 carries against the Colts, whom many expected to dominate on the ground.
Gardner Minshew is coming off an efficient performance, going 19-for-20 with 173 yards and three touchdowns. He won his lone start against Tennessee in Week 3 last season, completing 20-of-30 passes for 204 yards and two TDs. He should be able to move the ball against a Titans defense that let up 323 total yards against Drew Lock and Denver on Monday night.
The tank job is clearly off for the time being in Jacksonville. And with Tennessee’s kicking game in complete disarray, there’s certainly the possibility of the Titans leaving points off the board in Nashville. Again, I don’t think the Jaguars win outright, but I like them to keep it within a touchdown.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.
We were close. If not for a sloppy Tampa Bay Buccaneers debut from Tom Brady, we would’ve hit last week’s parlay that featured the Bucs, Bills, Jaguars, and Steelers. After a close call last week, let’s flip the page and nail home a big win in Week 2. This week’s parlay features two sides and […]